QPR headline our tips for Saturday's action in the premier League. Check out our match-by-match preview.
Southampton v Tottenham (1245 BST)
It's rare that I'm taken aback by a set of prices, but I can't quite fathom why there should be such a disparity between the odds quoted about home and away wins here. Spurs lead Southampton by one point after 33 matches - in short, there's very little difference in the quality of these sides. So, with home advantage taken into account, I wouldn't have been surprised to see Saints quoted at 13/8, with Spurs around the 9/5 mark and the draw slightly bigger. You can argue that Southampton have more to play for since Aston Villa's victory over Liverpool in their FA Cup semi-final, a result which means that seventh place in the Premier League may no longer be enough to secure Europa League football next term. For Spurs, this may actually provide comfort should they finish seventh, which is where Southampton currently lie. Saints, however, would surely relish the opportunity to welcome European football to the south coast - their fans especially. That's all well and good, but Mauricio Pochettino will not yet have given up on the Champions League and he's certainly not going to encourage his players to throw in the towel just yet. What's more, for all that Southampton have built a fearsome reputation at home this season, they've lost more times than any of the other top-six sides. Interestingly, three of these four defeats have come to the teams currently positioned third, fourth and fifth in the table and I believe there's a better than 3/1 chance that Spurs add 'sixth' to that list. What's more, the visitors are set to have Hugo Lloris available for selection again and they won comfortably away from home last weekend. This is an altogether tougher test but Southampton's success has been built on clean sheets and they'll do well to keep Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen et al quiet for 90 minutes. Rewind to last season and Spurs ran out 3-2 winners, which when added to a 1-0 victory in the reverse means they're seeking their sixth consecutive victory over Southampton. What that's worth, who can say, but with so little between these sides on all available evidence it's a straightforward decision to side with the underdogs. Spurs are 3/1 to win the game and 7/4 in the draw-no-bet market and I'll take the former, given that they tend to either win or lose on the road. Admittedly, they have struggled against the best sides in the division but Southampton remain one step below that level and Spurs are value to show it.
No comments:
Post a Comment